676 launches. Nearly 12,000 satellites in orbit. No government and no other company comes close. Now comes the next launch: the one on the stock exchange. The superlatives are just as fitting here.

The IPO price is set: $135 per SPCX share, fixed before the roadshow even begins on June 8. That's unusual. Companies typically name a price range and wait to see what investors will pay. SpaceX didn't. At $135, the valuation comes to $1.77 trillion. That would put SpaceX ahead of Tesla overnight and make it the seventh most valuable company in the United States.

The planned offering of at least $75 billion would leave the previous record holder, Saudi Aramco ($29 billion in 2019), far behind. With strong demand, an overallotment option could push that to $85.7 billion. What I find remarkable: not a single share comes from existing shareholders. Musk is selling nothing. Neither are other early investors. Every dollar goes straight into the company, for Starlink expansion, Starship development, and AI infrastructure.

After the IPO, only around 5 percent of shares will be publicly tradeable. The vast majority stays with Musk and existing investors. Through a dual-class structure that gives certain shares ten times the voting weight, Musk will hold around 85 percent of voting rights despite owning only about 42 percent of the capital. He remains the largest shareholder, CEO, and chairman in one. Similar structures exist at Alphabet and Meta. For investors, this means one thing: they participate in the financial upside, but control stays firmly in Musk's hands. Which raises the real question:

The answers are far apart. Morningstar puts it at $780 billion, less than half the IPO price. ARK Invest considers $1.77 trillion justified and projects a value of $2.5 trillion by 2030. Morgan Stanley sees revenue reaching $3.4 trillion by 2040. Goldman Sachs forecasts $470 billion by 2030. Impressive numbers. But worth knowing: SpaceX is ARK Invest's largest position at around 17 percent of its own fund. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are among the 21 banks earning fees on this IPO. The conflict of interest is obvious in all three cases. I consider valuation uncertainty the biggest risk of this IPO. You're not buying an established business model. You're buying the future Musk is promising: orbital AI data centers, Starlink as global internet infrastructure, a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. Opportunity, yes. But also considerable uncertainty.

Whether all of it plays out is something only time will tell. The same goes for another open question: a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX. The topic is reportedly being discussed internally. I think it's possible. Both companies have shared personnel and resources for years. I covered this in my Tesla piece. Whether it ever becomes a single company remains to be seen.

At a valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX could be added to the NASDAQ-100 as early as 15 days after its debut. The S&P 500 will likely take a year. S&P Global has no plans to change its rules. But sooner or later, SpaceX will get there too. When it does, millions of ETF investors worldwide will automatically become SpaceX shareholders, whether they want to or not. Other insiders can start selling shares within weeks of the IPO, once the first quarterly report is filed. Musk himself is locked up for 366 days. I'll be watching all of this from the sidelines. On June 12, we'll find out what the market thinks of the vision: shooting billions from the stock exchange into space.

Is SpaceX a buy? At $135 per share and a valuation of $1.77 trillion, I'm staying on the sidelines. The IPO price was set before the roadshow, only 5 percent of shares will be publicly tradeable, and independent estimates range from $780 billion (Morningstar) to $2.5 trillion (ARK Invest) by 2030. You're not buying an established business model. You're buying the future Musk is promising. The biggest risk: the gap between vision and valuation is wide, and the market will have to close it.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. I am not a financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.

Disclosure: I may hold direct or indirect positions (including options) in any securities mentioned in this newsletter. My opinions are my own and always honest.