Valuing Tesla (TSLA) with conventional metrics is an exercise in futility. P/E of 240, P/CF above 100: the stock simply defies any straightforward read. The real question isn't what Tesla earns today or in the future. It's what Elon Musk intends to do with it. And that's exactly where my problem lies. I buy when the numbers make sense, when I can assess the risk and reward, and when the price fits. With Tesla, I can't. Not really.

The company is a visionary grab bag. Alongside electric vehicles, it runs an energy business with grid-scale storage (Megapack), is building out a robotaxi network, developing Optimus, a humanoid robot, selling its driver-assistance software FSD as a subscription, and is part of the Terrafab joint venture, which is set to produce high-performance AI chips. This is no longer a carmaker. It's a collection of bets on the future. Which ones will pay off, and when, is anyone's guess. And yet I find TSLA interesting. The reason is Elon Musk, who is positioning another horse in the race.

That horse is SpaceX, which bundles spaceflight, the social network X, and the AI chatbot Grok under one roof. SpaceX is expected to go public later this year. I expect a spectacular IPO. The deal with Anthropic on May 6th is the latest clever move. Musk is renting out his AI supercomputer Colossus (over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs in Memphis, previously underutilized) to Anthropic, which recorded 80x growth in the first quarter of 2026 and simply ran out of capacity. Two problems, one solution. Pragmatic, smart, and entirely on-brand for Musk.

And that gets me speculating. Why not eventually combine the AI activities of both companies to gain an edge in an increasingly brutal competitive landscape? It sounds far-fetched, I know. But I wouldn't put it past Musk. When I piece together all the parts of his empire across every company, Tesla fits perfectly. Grid storage, robots, chips, the manufacturing expertise of the Gigafactories, the data competency built through Robotaxi and FSD. Is it really so far-fetched that Tesla and SpaceX could one day merge? Maybe not soon. But I think it's plausible that after a SpaceX IPO, Tesla sooner or later moves under the SpaceX umbrella. One company, one control. That would make strategic sense. Equally speculative, but not unthinkable to me: Tesla shareholders might even get preferential treatment in a SpaceX IPO. Whether any of this actually happens is probably something only Musk knows.

For me, Tesla is not an investment. Too many unknowns, too many uncertainties. But I find it fascinating to watch what comes next. So I bought exactly one share. Not to make money. Just to have skin in the game as Elon Musk maps out his cosmos.

Is Tesla a buy? For me, Tesla is not a conventional investment. The stock trades at a P/E of 240 and a P/CF above 100, defying any straightforward valuation. I bought exactly one share, not to make money, but to have skin in the game as Elon Musk builds out his cosmos. The biggest risk: too many unknowns, too many moving parts across too many companies.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. I am not a financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.

Disclosure: I may hold direct or indirect positions (including options) in any securities mentioned in this newsletter. My opinions are my own and always honest.