On April 1, 2026, SpaceX confidentially filed its IPO draft with the SEC. The listing is planned for June 2026. The target valuation: a staggering $1.75 trillion. The capital to be raised: up to $80 billion, more than three times the previous US record. Anyone looking to invest indirectly in SpaceX right now has very few options. EchoStar (SATS) is one of them. But let me be direct: this is not an investment recommendation. This is speculation, with everything that comes with it.

A little over a year ago, EchoStar was on the edge of collapse. Debt of around $26 billion, a shrinking satellite TV business, a loss-making mobile arm, a regulator threatening to revoke its licenses. What followed was not a strategic masterstroke but an act of self-preservation. In August 2025, a deal with AT&T was struck: the sale of spectrum licenses for $23 billion, with closing planned for the first half of 2026. In September, another license sale followed for $17 billion to SpaceX, half in cash and half in SpaceX shares. That same month, additional license sales in exchange for SpaceX shares worth $2.6 billion were announced. If the pending approvals come through, EchoStar could emerge nearly debt-free. The forced emergency measure as a lucky turn of events and the foundation for a strategic realignment.

EchoStar is no longer primarily a telecommunications company. It has quasi-transformed into an investment holding with a SpaceX stake. Through the strategic partnership in the Starlink ecosystem, a new growth perspective has emerged. Boost Mobile customers gain access to Starlink's Direct-to-Cell service. Starting in mid-2027, SpaceX plans to operate a new generation of satellites using the acquired EchoStar licenses, with up to 100 times higher capacity. What began as an emergency measure could become the foundation of a global satellite mobile infrastructure.

And then there is this straightforward calculation: EchoStar holds around 1.5 to 2% of SpaceX shares. At the target valuation of $1.75 trillion, that stake would be worth around $26 to $35 billion. EchoStar's current market capitalization sits at around $35 billion. The market is therefore pricing the stock almost entirely as a SpaceX holding.

The risks are real and numerous. EchoStar does not yet physically hold the SpaceX shares. Management confirmed this explicitly on the March 2nd earnings call. The FCC approvals for the license transfers are still pending. Infrastructure providers like American Tower have filed objections. As long as the deal remains blocked, there is no cash and no shares.

The core operating business remains structurally weak. DISH and Sling are losing subscribers. Boost Mobile is losing money. And the broadband business is shrinking, ironically due to competition from Starlink, its own strategic partner. On top of that, decommissioning and tax costs of an estimated $5 to $7 billion are weighing on the balance sheet.

My thesis plays out if three things happen: the FCC approvals come through, the SpaceX IPO takes place as planned in June at a valuation that meets or exceeds current expectations, and EchoStar actually receives the SpaceX shares.

EchoStar is a high-risk bet on the SpaceX IPO, with the added possibility of a strategic repositioning. Through the partnership, the company could become a beneficiary of SpaceX's telecommunications activities in space and reposition itself over time.

For all the appeal of this setup, investors must treat any investment in EchoStar for what it is: pure speculation. A disappointing IPO, a delay, or the failure of the pending regulatory approvals would immediately undermine the valuation basis. Whether the forced emergency measure turns into a success story is not for EchoStar to decide. It will be decided by SpaceX, the regulators, and the whims of the capital markets.

The bet is on. The outcome is open.

Is EchoStar a buy right now? I consider EchoStar a highly speculative bet, not a conventional investment. The stock's entire valuation of around $35 billion rests almost entirely on a SpaceX stake worth $26 to $35 billion at the target IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion. The key risks: EchoStar does not yet physically hold the SpaceX shares, FCC approvals are still pending, and the core operating business remains structurally weak. If the IPO delivers and the regulatory approvals come through, the upside is real. If either fails, the valuation basis collapses.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. I am not a financial advisor. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.

Disclosure: I may hold direct or indirect positions (including options) in any securities mentioned in this newsletter. My opinions are my own and always honest.